Trends . . .  OUTLOOK  IS  FOR  FEEDSTUFFS  TO  REMAIN  VERY  EXPENSIVE

On August 11^th, USDA-NASS lowered their 2011 crop production forecasts for major feedstuffs and the WAOB raised USDA’s price forecasts.  The estimated national average corn yield was reduced to 153 bushels per acre, a decline of nearly 6 bushels from the month-earlier forecast and below industry expectations.  The national average sorghum yield was reduced by nearly 11 bushels per acre compared to one month ago, due to drought in the Southern Plains.  For soybeans, the national yield was reduced by 2 bushels per acre over the last month.

DAIRY  TRADE  UPDATE

On August 11^th, USDA-FAS released June trade data for the dairy complex, marking a full six months of data for the year as well as some revisions for the prior year.  U.S. dairy product exports have been somewhat tumultuous in recent years, becoming a large presence globally in 2008, only to be severely stifled in 2009, and then 2010 proved to be the brightest year yet.  So, where does 2011 fit in comparison to these years?  To more accurately compare, year-to-date figures will be used to include monthly seasonal changes for the six major categories tracked by the LMIC: Milk and Cream (Not Concentrated or Sweetened), Milk and Cream (Concentrated or Sweetened), Buttermilk, Whey, Butter and Cheese.

CANADIAN  CATTLE  ON  FEED

Last week CanFax reported that the August 1^st number of cattle on-feed in Alberta and Saskatchewan feedlots (1000 head or more) was 671,700 head, 5% more than last year, but nearly 8% below the 2004-2009 average.  Canadian feeders enjoyed an advantage in feeding margins earlier this year relative to the U.S., one reason for the larger number of cattle on feed.  According to the report, feeders placed about 5% less cattle than last year during July and 35% less than the prior five-year average.  On a seasonal basis, July is the lowest placement month for Canadian feedlots.  During July, CanFax reported feedlot marketings at 173,900 head, about 25,000 head or 12% below 2010’s.